Risk Management Assignment

Introduction - This assignment is in two parts and is designed to develop your understanding of Risk Management. The first part considers the use of computer modelling. The second part concentrates on the evaluation of design, commercial and environmental risk.

Learning Outcomes to be assessed -

• Apply management theory and practice to the modern construction production process, including, quality management systems, health and safety and the work environment, schedule and cost management and the like.
• Apply the principles of probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation to quantitative risk management models.

Detail of the task - The task is in two parts. The first part requires you to produce and evaluate computer programmes for the design of a Wastewater Treatment Works, using Asta powerproject, Tekla and Excel.  The second part requires you to consider the risks which led to a Civil Engineering problem of your choice.  You are to produce a report covering both tasks.

Task 1 -

This task requires you to make use of commercially available software (Asta, Tekla and Excel) to consider some of the risks involved with the design of a Wastewater Treatment Works treated wastewater from a combined sewerage system.

The Wastewater Treatment Works should serve a population of approximately 30000 people with a small amount of industry (approximately 10% of the wastewater from industry), and will consist of:

• Grit removal
• Screening
• 2 Archimedes screw type pumps
• 2 Sedimentation tanks
• 1 Activated sludge unit, followed by a clarification tank
• Outlet to river
• Storage area for sludge (which will be removed by tanker)
• CSO (Combined Sewer Overflow) for excess incoming wastewater
• Pipework as needed.

OVERALL DESIGN -

You will need to choose sizes for the various components, to produce an overall design for the works.  You will also need to choose a suitable area and shape of land for the works.  You can assume that your chosen area / shape is available.  You will also need to determine how many tankers per day are needed to avoid overall of the sludge storage tank.

ASTA -

1. Use Asta to produce a program for construction of the works.

2. Using progress tracking, model, and report on, the potential effect of delays due to weather, lack of availability of parts, and lack of availability of staff.

3. You should also carry out a sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation (assume a maximum of 20% higher and a minimum of 20% lower than the estimated duration of all tasks due to the influence of risk factors in the project), and present the results in your report.  Your report should contain a section detailing the results of your sensitivity analysis of different tasks in the project and conclusions from it.  Tables and/or graphs are likely to be useful in helping to present the results clearly.

4. Note that you should consider approximately 30 separate items on your Asta programme.  The accuracy of timings is not vital; it is more important to consider the effects of variations (delays and problems).  This aspect is the important one for gaining marks.

TEKLA -

Design a support structure for an Archimedes screw using Tekla. 

You should consider several (at least 4) variations to the design to see the effect of changes, including at least one change which is incorrect and hence gives answers which are substantially incorrect, and another change which is incorrect but gives answers which are only slightly incorrect.

Your report on the Tekla modelling should discuss the risk of incorrect data, and the difficulty (or otherwise) in identifying mistakes in data.

EXCEL -

You are to produce an Excel spreadsheet to investigate (using Monte Carlo analysis) the effect of problems with removal of sludge by tanker.   You should consider the effects of tankers failing to arrive to remove sludge.

You should assume that a tanker failing to arrive occurs with a probability approximating to a normal distribution, with the following values

Where x is the 2nd digit of your student number, and y is the 5th digit of your student number.  If x is zero for your student number you should take x to be the first non zero digit.  If y is zero for your student number you should take y to be the last non-zero digit.

Task 2 -

You are to consider an engineering problem (possibly a disaster, but possibly a problem with less impact than a 'disaster').  Explain your chosen problem clearly.

Consider the issues which led to the problem, and explain how these may have led to the problem.

Consider ways in which it might have been possible to predict the problem in advance and critically evaluate the reasons for the problem occurring.

Make suggestions for reducing the probability of such a problem recurring.