Applied Finance with Eviews Assignment -

Answer ALL sub-questions.

Question 1 - A basic proposition is that exchange rates adjust so as to maintain the purchasing power parity (PPP): the price of a bundle of goods, expressed in common currency, should be the same across countries. That is taking into consideration the exchange rate between two countries, a good in country A should be sold at the same price in country B.

The aim of this exercise is to test whether PPP theory holds between Japan and US in the long-run. The data for this exercise are contained in the file Coursework_data_18_19.xlsx, where JPCPI is the Japan Consumer Price Index, USCPI is the US Consumer Price Index and JPYUSD is the Yen to US dollar nominal exchange rate (i.e. how many yen you need to buy one US$). Japan is the domestic country and US is the foreign country. Data have a monthly frequency and span from 1991 to 2015 (source: IFS).

Let s_t be the log of the nominal exchange rate, p_t be the log of the JPCPI, p^*_t be the log of USCPI.

a) Generate an appropriate Eview workfile and plot the year-on-year inflation rates for the two courtiers and briefy comment;

b) Generate the variables s_t, p_t and p^*_t  and generate the real exchange rate q_t, by applying the following formula:

q_t = s_t + p^*_t - p_t

For the variable q_t graph the series and briefly comment;

c) Test whether the real exchange rate q_t is a random walk or a martingale and briefly comment;

d) If the PPP theory holds then the real exchange rate should not deviate persistently from its average. Investigate the order of integration of the real exchange rate and briefly comment;

e) Frenkel (1978) suggests that an alternative way to check for the validity of PPP theory consists of estimating the nominal exchange rate versus the differences in prices. More specifically, he suggests to estimate the following equation

s_t = α + β(p_t - p^*_t) + ε_t

And to test whether α = 0 and β = 1.

Thus, estimate the above equation, test whether α = 0 and β = 1 and perform the joint hypothesis test, comments on your results;

f) Assuming that the two series s_t and (p_t - p^*_t) have a unit root, test for cointegration, and comments on your results;

g) Assuming that the two series s_t and (p_t - p^*_t) are cointegrated, following Edison (1987), estimate the following simple first-order error correction model (ECM) and comments on your results:

Δs_t = β₁ + β₂[s_t-1 - α - β(p_t-1 - p^*_t-1)] + β₃(Δp_t-1 - Δp^*_t-1) + ε_t

Attachment:- Assignment Files.rar