Risk Management for Projects Assignment -

Module Aims - The module aims are to:

• To develop a critical awareness of uncertainty and risk management theories and applications as an aid to decision making.
• Place uncertainty and risk management within the decision making context of construction projects.

Learning Outcomes - On successful completion of the module the learner, operating autonomously and creatively, should be able to:

• Demonstrate a critical understanding of theories and practical application of uncertainty and risk management systems and how they support the decision making process.
• Design risk management systems that effectively identify, analyse and respond to project risk factors.
• Develop numerical models that inform decision makers by identifying and measuring variables and simulating the decision and critically interpreting the models' outputs.
• Communicate risks effectively and efficiently using suitable terminology.
• Demonstrate self-reflection and the ability to identify and manage their own personal and professional development needs.

Assessment - The assessment for this module is made up of two problems and a reflective journal.

Problem 1: a qualitative scenario based project

Design and test a risk management system

An internal audit of your organisation has assessed itself to be at a risk maturity level 1 - "Ad Hock" (in accordance with the Risk Management Maturity Model (RMMM) from Risk Management Maturity Level Development April 2002 see the "assignments" section in Blackboard). The managing director has tasked you with the job of designing a risk management system that if implemented within the organisation would bring your organisation up to a maturity level 3 - "Repeatable" in the short term with the aim of level 4 - "Managed" in the longer term. The managing director has stressed that the system you design must be effective and efficient.

Once you have designed the system you are then to demonstrate its workings by applying it to the following project.

Project - Office development (shell and core) on a brownfield site (adjacent to the Thames) in docklands, London. Approx site area 14,500m². A total pre-let has been agreed (tenant responsible for fit out). Basement car parking for 500 cars. Site access by road via University Way, access restricted by railway line. Site near London City Airport but not on the flight path. Initial discussions with local planning authority suggest they would not consider more than four stories high and that the building should not occupy more than 75% of the site. The Client wished to have a usable floor area of min. of 30,000m². Design & Build is the Client's preferred procurement route. The scheme has just completed feasibility stage.

You are the project management team working for the Client and he has identified the following targets.

• Handover to tenant 52 weeks from site possession.
• Design costs and construction budget £40 million.
• Must exceed planned government targets is respect to Co2 emissions in the building's construction and subsequent operations.
• Meet specified quality criteria regarding the external aesthetics 'Striking Modern Architectural style'.
• Meet functional performance set by tenant in regards flexibility and adaptability.

Problem 2: a quantitative simulation

Risk analysis simulation - Develop a two dimensional spreadsheet (the model) that contains mixtures of constants and variables. Compile data where possible for your input variables and identify distributions that reflects that data. Justify your selection. Using @RISK simulate the effect the selected distributions have on the outcome or outcomes and present the results using a variety of suitable graphs and reports. Critically interpret the results and comment on how the results could influence your risk management strategy.

Advice on developing the model. It is best to view the development of the model as an iterative process. Start with a simple speardsheet and add complexity as your understanding of the program, the inputs and outputs develop.

Try to avoid using Excel's functions in your model, use the basic formula.

Do not mix the model and the data; keep them both on separate sheets in the spreadsheets.

Specific Assessment Criteria - Along with the general assessment criteria listed above the following specific assessment criteria will be used in the assessment of this portfolio. Each criterion is allocated a percentage weighting to indicate its importance.

• Quality and complexity of spreadsheet
• Analysis of and identification of input distributions
• Effective use of @RISK
• Critical interpretation of output
• Written and graphical presentation skills.

Note - Do only problem 2 Quantitative Simulation.

Attachment:- Assignment File.rar